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3. The Terms of a REPA

The EU has been vague about its plans for REPAs, but there exist examples from other agreements that provide guidance. A detailed analysis of the EU–Morocco Agreement suggests that there may be major pitfalls to be avoided by the ACP. The proposed terms of the EU–South Africa FTA reinforce this need for caution.
   There is little reason to expect that ACP exports to the EU will derive significantly improved market access from a REPA. Both economic theory and the empirical evidence of the Morocco Agreement also suggest that the static and dynamic gains expected of liberalisation may occur only very partially. This is because opening up domestic markets to just one, not necessarily efficient, supplier in the absence of vigorous competition policy may not result in the expected changes in the structure of production.
The sections of the Morocco Agreement on ‘new areas’ of trade policy are particularly relevant to the ACP given that the EU has proposed to introduce them into the REPAs. These ‘new areas’ include policies on trade in services (including rights of establishment), competition policy and government procurement.
Of particular concern for the ACP should be the fact that, while Morocco is obliged to adopt EU competition rules, Europe has not forgone the right to use anti-dumping action. Given that the misuse of anti-dumping policy is widely considered to be one of the most disruptive features of the current international trade regime, and that the application of effective competition policy in the exporting state should remove the possibilities for predatory dumping, it is unfortunate that the FTA has not been used as a vehicle to introduce new disciplines. The ACP may wish to press in a REPA for constraints to be placed upon the EU’s use of anti-dumping policy. This is an area in which Lomé is silent and on which, therefore, a new agreement could represent an improvement.
Both the Morocco and the South Africa agreements suggest that the rules of origin in any REPA may be a problem for the ACP. The rules in the Lomé Convention are superior to those in both of the two FTAs, in the sense that they are less of a constraint on ACP exports. Since the EU has indicated a desire to rationalise its multiplicity of origin rules, there is a danger that those incorporated into a REPA will differ from those in Lomé.